Bowl Projections

First off I have to report the news, by now everyone in SEC Nation knows that Tennessee’s head coach, Phillip Fulmer will be stepping down at the end of the season. This news isn’t surprising as the Vols are in the midst of their worst season in many years. Fulmer, 58 years old, has spent 17 years as the Volunteer head coach with a record of 150 – 51 including a National Championship. Duke Head coach David Cutcliffe would be the logical choice, but Cuttcliffe has stated that he will not leave Duke. Speculation all over the internet is at a high. Here are a few names high on the list of bloggers: Mushchamp, Kiffen, and Davis. I even saw one mention of John Gruden and Bill Cower. I will not speculate as I am not too close to the situation in Knoxville, so I am going to get down to the tricky business at hand. And that is…..

Bowling anyone? After writing an article a few weeks back about Jinxes, Hexes, and Curses, I am afraid to actually write this article. I don’t wish to “Jinx” any of the teams I write about, but I cannot resist. Let us take a look at what the SEC Nation may have in store for them come the post season. First let’s talk about the SEC bowl tie-ins and their criteria for team selection; afterwards we can break down possible scenarios for each of these bowls. Shall we?

The South Eastern Conference has 8 bowl tie-ins coupled with an automatic BCS bid for the conference champion in the Allstate Sugar Bowl. The 8 remaining bowls are the Independence Bowl, Papajohns.com Bowl, Chick-Fil-A Bowl, Music City Bowl, Outback Bowl, Capital One Bowl, Cotton Bowl, and the Liberty Bowl. The criteria for these bowl’s selection process gets a little confusing. I will try to be as brief as possible. The Papajohns.com gets the SEC’s #9 team, followed by the Independence Bowl getting the #8 SEC team. The Liberty and Music City Bowls have choice of the SEC’s #6 and #7 teams, I couldn’t find any information on who picks first, but I would have to think that proximity of available teams may play a part in the selection process. The same goes for the Chick-Fil-A, Cotton, and Outback Bowls; these three get the choice of the #3, #4, and #5 teams. The SEC # 2 gets the Capital One Bowl and as stated earlier the SEC champion has an automatic BCS bid in the Allstate Sugar Bowl. This year however, if the SEC champ gets the BCS National Championship game, then the SEC #2 can move into the Sugar Bowl. I told you it can get tricky.

As of right now, six SEC teams are already bowl eligible with 6 wins. These are Alabama (9-0); Florida (7-1); Georgia (7-2); LSU (6-2); South Carolina (6-3); & Kentucky (6-3). Four SEC schools are still alive in the bowl hunt; these are Vanderbilt (5-3); Ole Miss (5-4); Arkansas (4-5); & Auburn (4-5). Mathematically, out of these 10 teams, only Arkansas & Auburn are completely out of the conference championship game. Alabama however can clinch the western division this coming weekend with a win over LSU while Florida can do the same with a victory over Vanderbilt, neither victory is set in stone though. There is no way to get this right at this point in the season, but one can kind of look ahead at schedules and see possibilities.

It is easier to predict the higher up bowls so that is where I will attempt to get this started. At the moment I feel that Alabama is a better team than Florida, not by much, but call it a gut feeling, I do however reserve the right to change that opinion at a later date. With Alabama taking over the top spot in the polls, I have them winning the conference championship game and moving to Miami to play in the BCS National Championship game. This will move Florida into the Allstate Sugar Bowl. At this moment I think Georgia looks good for the Capital One Bowl. Here is where it gets kind of cloudy.

Remember that geography could play a part in the selection process. For this reason I feel that Georgia would also be good in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl which is held in Atlanta, but that would make LSU have to travel to Orlando for the C.O.B., For this purpose I am going to move LSU into the Cotton Bowl, and South Carolina goes down to Tampa for the Outback. Boy! The clouds are really starting to roll in, because here is where we have the most possibilities. Kentucky has 1 very tough game with Georgia left on their schedule and Vanderbilt the following weekend. If the Wildcats can earn a split over those two games and a win in their season finale against Tennessee then they are looking good for the Chick-Fil-A Bowl. I feel that Vanderbilt will get the bid for the Music City Bowl simply because of the geography, but they have a very difficult schedule ahead of them, but at this moment I will assume they get 2 more wins. I see Ole Miss getting the nod for the Liberty Bowl, once again for the geography, but if that tough Vanderbilt schedule hands them defeats, the Rebels could improve to the MCB or possibly even one of those #3 thru #5 bowls if the Rebels can muster enough game to run the table, that would shake up the top part of my predictions so I am going to have to wait awhile to revise them. This leaves Arkansas & Auburn available for the remaining two bowls. But actually, looking at the schedules, I only see Auburn winning one more game; this will not give them 6 wins. Arkansas has a tough row to hoe as well, I actually only see one more win for the Razorbacks too. This will leave 2 SEC bowl tie-ins open for At-Large bids to outside opponents.

Whew that was tough! To summarize; at this moment this is how I have the SEC bowl picture:

BCS Championship Game: Alabama
Allstate Sugar Bowl: Florida
Capital One Bowl: Georgia
Cotton Bowl: LSU
Outback Bowl: South Carolina
Chick-Fil-A Bowl: Kentucky
Music City Bowl: Vanderbilt
Liberty Bowl: Ole Miss
Independence Bowl: ???
PapaJohns.com Bowl: ???

Well SEC Nation, you now have my picks for the post season. Do you agree? If not let me hear your thoughts on this tricky subject. You may point out something to me that I haven’t thought of. Please come back on Friday and read my picks for the upcoming weekend. There is a real pressure cooker with National Championship implications set to take place in Baton Rouge that you will surely not want to miss. The opponents for the SEC championship game could be decided this weekend as well, so until then…..Hotty Toddy.

Darryle "Speedy" Clark